The New Commodity Cycle: What’s Driving Global Resource Demand

For most of the past decade, commodities were largely ignored.

Capital moved into technology, software, and financial assets while industries that powered the real world - energy, mining and raw materials - saw investment fall away.

That is now starting to reverse.

After the last cycle peaked around 2011–2014, spending across the sector dropped sharply. According to the International Energy Agency, upstream oil and gas investment fell from over $700 billion in 2014 to roughly $400 billion by 2020. Mining followed a similar path. Data from S&P Global shows exploration budgets dropped from around $21 billion in 2012 to under $8 billion just a few years later. That gap hasn’t fully been filled since. These are long-cycle industries. When investment falls, the impact doesn’t show up immediately - it shows up years later, in the form of tighter supply.

At the same time, demand has continued to build.

Electric vehicle adoption alone has shifted the picture. The IEA reports that more than 14 million EVs were sold in 2023, and each one requires significantly more copper than a traditional vehicle. That’s before factoring in the broader push to upgrade power grids, expand infrastructure and electrify large parts of the economy. There’s also AI and data centres. Goldman Sachs estimates that power demand from data centres could rise by as much as 160% by 2030.

Put simply, modern growth is increasingly tied to physical materials.

Supply Can’t Respond Quickly

The issue is that supply doesn’t move at the same speed.

Bringing a new mine online can take well over a decade. S&P Global puts the average development timeline at more than 15 years. Even when prices rise, it takes time for new supply to follow. In copper, that lag is becoming more visible. The International Energy Agency estimates that current and planned supply may only meet around 80% of expected demand by 2030 (with some bodies claiming it's much less.)

At the same time, ore grades are declining in key regions, discoveries are becoming less frequent, and costs are rising. These are structural constraints, not short-term issues.

A More Political Market

On top of that, resources have become increasingly political.

China dominates key parts of the supply chain, controlling a large share of global refining capacity for materials like lithium and rare earths. In response the US and Europe are pushing to secure their own supply, with policies aimed at increasing domestic extraction and processing.

The result is a more fragmented system, where access to resources is becoming a strategic concern, not just an economic one.

The future outlook is clear.

A decade of underinvestment has left supply tight. Demand is growing across multiple fronts and new supply takes years to build. With the geopolitical landscape rapidly changing, the pressure to an already constrained system is rocketing.

Final Thought

Resource cycles tend to be recognised late, once prices are already moving.

The more important phase is earlier — when the conditions start to shift beneath the surface.

That’s where we are now. Research and move on opportuntiy early.

Deep Resource Daily insights on commodities, energy, and global resources.